Early Actuarial Prediction Season Wins

A good friend, who is an actuary, and I have a process where we predict the chances of winning a particular game, then add up the chances and you arrive at the likely season win/loss.

Here is the initial - before the completion of fall camp predictions

Western Michigan - 90% chance of NU win

San Jose St - 95% chance of NU win

New Mex State - 95%

V Tech - 70%

Missouri - 50%

@ T Tech - 50% (personally, I think they are over-rated)

@ ISU - 70% (season upset special)

Baylor - 95%

@ OU - 20% (do I think we could be them in Norman 2 of 10 tries?)

KU - 60%

@ KSU - 70%

Cuffs - 90%

Grand Total = 8.55 or with rounding a 9 win regular season.  A bit optimistic, the rounding almost caused me to knock a game down, but, for now, I like my percentages.

Comments

[Mike]

If you're going to pimp your blog all over Pedia.. at least get some updates going!

[Matt Maher]

Ron, did you say "a bit optimistic"? You only have 1 game where they have less than a 50/50 shot of losing........ ;-)