People are looking to this game to tell us a lot about the Huskers. It will and it won't.
It will tell us if we are ready to play against equal or better athletes. It will tell us how we handle the lights, the cameras and the "real" season. It will tell us if we've gotten some of our injured players back in a manner that makes them viable.
It won't tell much of anything about how we'll play against the spread offenses of the next two months. I don't think a win or a loss makes a bit of difference against Missouri. A win gives us confidence, a loss makes us mad. Both will be used by our great coaches to motivate and coach our kids.
Will we win?
Why we might:
Home under the lights with an amped crowd.
Two weeks to prepare - Watson and both Pellinis are scheme junkies and will have enough wrinkles to create difficulties for V-tech.
V-tech is young and relatively inexperienced. No great receivers, average lines, etc.
We have more balance to our offense than V-tech. Both teams will try to stuff the run and force the QB to win via the air. Ganz will perform reasonably well in those conditions.
Speed on defense - we have the speed necessary to stuff their run at the line and create a pass only attack.
V-tech isn't V-tech on special teams. This is an even match - V-tech is used to a significant advantage on special teams.
Why we might not win:
Our defensive backfield is not able to execute the schemes as designed.
Our kick coverage is very suspect.
Our O-line simply may not be able to create a running game and Ganz will give the ball away.
Our crowd will be tired instead of amped. Our crowd has forgotten how to cheer and make it a hostile environment at key times for 4 quarters. Every crowd is loud on an interception return for a TD. It takes a special crowd to create the environment where the interception happens.
Okay, how it'll happen.
1st quarter. NU manages to get a score on a reasonable drive. Techs offense struggles to create enough variety to sustain long drives and settles for a field goal. NU is up 7-3 but Tech has more yards and momentum is neutral. Field possession favors Tech for the entire quarter.
2nd Quarter. NU struggles to a few 3 and outs, but manages a score helped by a series of passes and Lucky for a long score. Tech moves the ball on most every possession but not enough to get in the endzone - 2 more fieldgoals and NU is up 14-9. NU still losing on the yards and lacks momentum and chemistry. Again, NU does nothing on offense unless the field possession is given to them.
3rd Quarter. Tech takes the opening kick back for a score. The fire is lit. NU comes out and scores from 70 yards in 6 plays. NU back up 21-16. NU does not look back. Scheme adjustments on Offense produce long time draining runs. V-tech begins to look tired. Defensively we get a big pick and hand field possession to the offense for a quick 3 play scoring drive. NU up 31-16.
4th quarter. Tech is not done, they force a turnover on a errand option play and get an easy score to pull to 31-23. NU scores immediately on the next drive with a huge pass play on a beautiful option play action to Helu who had lined up at FB and ran a clean post route. The crowd is too much and NU is playing backups late in the 4th and has a somewhat anti-climatic easy finish to the game after a Tech 3 and out and nice return by Niles Paul.
Final - NU 45-30.
Things to look for: The team with the most field goals LOSES. One turnover max. One miscue on special teams max. NU needs to rush for at least 180 with 50 from Ganz. We need an unexpected player to score -the FB, Defender, etc. Tech has to lose the game before the 4th quarter, i.e., Tech is mentally strong and dangerous in close games. Pelini and Watson to out-adjust Tech.
You know, this "keys to the game" thing used to be so much easier when Tommie Frazier was playing. Every week my key to the game was if Frazier plays well, we win and he ALWAYS played well. Now it get all complicated with worrying about the kicking game, turnovers, fullback rushing yards, number of pancake blocks by the tightend, having the right number of DBs on the correct side of the field on 80% of the snaps, etc. I am still waiting to see if this team is for real or not.
Posted by: PG | September 26, 2008 at 01:54 PM