What a difficult game to predict.
We played well at times this year and really poorly, too. Our two signature wins (only wins over teams with winning records) are KU and Western Michigan. Not too impressive, however, we also lost to some pretty good teams -- the weakest being V-Tech or Missouri. That sounds more impressive, doesn't it?
Clemson's big win was season ending over South Carolina. Second was over Boston College? Losses were to Alabama and FSU.
Both teams heated up toward the end of the season, with Clemson's heat coming over better competition than ours (soon to be fired Prince and CU were not great teams).
Clemson's defense is supposed to be solid. But the competition factor is really to be questioned. We faced Heisman finalist QBs and Clemson faced marginal running teams. FSU certainly has talent and ran away from Clemson, even when they were heating up.
Clemson did not score well in wins or losses. They never mustered above 31 points in their last seven games. Their point totals 31, 13, 31, 27, 27, 7, 17 over the previous 7 games shows a limitation of about one score a quarter. Which brings us to strategery.
Nebraska game strategy has been keep away. Ball control. Eat clock. Clemson seems to lack the offensive threat to necessitate such a strategy. These would be guys you'd want to get in a fast scoring, first one to 50 wins type of game. Because it seems very unlikely they can keep up and would become one-dimensional quickly - toward their weaker dimension. They don't have an overly powerful passing attack, but can do some ball control running. It would seem they will try to play keep away from us. We haven't encountered that style of ball game since V-tech.
Special teams probably favor Clemson, unless it comes down to a 57 yard field goal. They have a good return guy. We don't want Spiller to be their MVP - he's their return man, throws out of the backfield, etc type of guy.
Clemson is stuck in a dilemma - playing keep away is their best bet, because they can't win a scoring contest, but the weakest component on defense for us is the deep ball. Do they risk lots of 3 and outs by running play action passes on 3rd and 3 and throwing deep? Meanwhile, they like running between the tackles, not NU's usual weakness. Running at or around our D-line is not the expected way to beat us.
Meanwhile, we should look to wear out their defense, the only part of their team that will likely keep them in the game, but at the same time, jumping to a 17-0 lead is very tempting.
I think we try to score in 5 minute drives and use a lot of new wrinkles to vex their defense. Clemson is used to playing an attacking Defense. Watson has to put them on their heals. Look for lots of wheel house routes and halfback passes, maybe even our first reverse of the season.
Prediction Tomorrow.
I am getting concerned about the game. The first two Big 12 bowl games did not go well. There was speculation during the season that the great offensive performances by Big 12 teams was due not so much to great offenses, but rather, mediocre defenses. The Missouri game and the OSU game seem to reinforce that notion.
As goes Ganz, so will the team. If he is hot, Nebraska wins. If he misses open receivers and makes mistakes, Nebraska loses.
Posted by: paul grinvalds | December 31, 2008 at 05:59 AM
Good points Paul. But my kool-aid has been poured.
Posted by: Ron Safarik | December 31, 2008 at 02:35 PM