RonzNotes Husker Ramblings

Are you feeling Lucky?

Looking back over the many seasons of success in huskerland, all the great seasons had one or two games where luck played a huge role.  In '93 we played for a national championship because KU went for two and failed.  In 97 there was that "nice catch" by Matt Davison.  Later that year, there was a key turnover when Tennessee was driving in the first half of the Orange bowl that turned a game from a close win and likely no championship into a rout. 

So, last year did we get to 9-4 and a nice bowl via some luck?  Hmmm....  the number 57 comes to mind.

I am quick to remind the overwhelming optimists about 2009 that our signature win was over KU, then Clemson and then.... KSU?  CU?  Our third biggest win was against a team that did not go to a bowl.  That is not a good sign of how we play when our strength of schedule gets factored in.

People will point out that we had "bad" luck against Texas Tech - all we had to do was not turn it over and we beat them.  Yes, we would have beat them because they missed their PAT.  Now that is luck in our favor and we just returned the favor.

So, how much luck will we need this year -- will luck beat OU or V-tech?  Probably not, since we returned a punt for a TD in LIncoln last year against Tech and couldn't win, luck is not enough out there.

I think luck helps us beat Texas Tech this year, they like to be generous and we like to give it back - remember LeKevin Smith's interception return/fumble? 

Some say it is better to be lucky than good - are we good enough yet to generate our own luck?

summmmmmmer time

Optimism is brewing in huskerland.  Smack down on CU, Misery, etc abounds.  I think those teams demise is over stated and KUs strength is over-rated.  KU had weaker "big" wins last year than us and admittedly get us at home with a senior QB.  Senior QBs tend to be the golden ticket the BXII championship game, but KUs schedule is really tough.

My big concerns are that our likely loss is at home against OU, then we have to win on the road against some tough, motivated teams.  Baylor is a sleeper who'll win as many as 4 games before playing us and need 2 for a bowl - you know they have us circled as one of those two (compared to their other choices).  Meanwhile, CU will be playing at home for a good bowl and maybe Hawkins job.  Meanwhile Pinkel isn't without talent at CU.

Lots of summertime ramblings.

Gator Bowl Score Prediction

Dare I say, this bowl is going to be great except for one thing - setting way too high of expectations for the Huskers in 2009.

The first quarter will see a brilliant Watson game plan put a quick 17 on clemson and put them on their heals for the rest of the game.  Clemson is ill equipped to attack NU's defensive short-comings and will generate lots of 3 and outs with poorly executed play action deep passes.

Watson will use Ganz effectively, but Ganz will have is "one stupid" play and throw a big pick in the second quarter for a defensive score and keep the door open and send us to halftime up 24-13.  The score a bit closer than the reality.

NU comes out and plays sloppy on the first couple possessions and holds a 27-23 lead before opening the flood gates to a 41-26 victory.  NU plays 3 good quarters and Clemson demonstrates it has talent, but the coaching changes take a toll on Clemson's ability to stop NU after the initial 1st down.

Enjoy the new year, but keep the expectations in check for 2009.  Although the North should be Wide open...

Gator Bowl Preview

What a difficult game to predict.

We played well at times this year and really poorly, too.  Our two signature wins (only wins over teams with winning records) are KU and Western Michigan.  Not too impressive, however, we also lost to some pretty good teams -- the weakest being V-Tech or Missouri.  That sounds more impressive, doesn't it?

Clemson's big win was season ending over South Carolina.  Second was over Boston College?  Losses were to Alabama and FSU. 

Both teams heated up toward the end of the season, with Clemson's heat coming over better competition than ours (soon to be fired Prince and CU were not great teams).

Clemson's defense is supposed to be solid.  But the competition factor is really to be questioned.  We faced Heisman finalist QBs and Clemson faced marginal running teams.  FSU certainly has talent and ran away from Clemson, even when they were heating up.

Clemson did not score well in wins or losses.  They never mustered  above 31 points in their last seven games.  Their point totals 31, 13, 31, 27, 27, 7, 17 over the previous 7 games shows a limitation of about one score a quarter.  Which brings us to strategery.

Nebraska game strategy has been keep away.  Ball control.  Eat clock.  Clemson seems to lack the offensive threat to necessitate such a strategy.  These would be guys you'd want to get in a fast scoring, first one to 50 wins type of game.  Because it seems very unlikely they can keep up and would become one-dimensional quickly - toward their weaker dimension.  They don't have an overly powerful passing attack, but can do some ball control running.  It would seem they will try to play keep away from us.  We haven't encountered that style of ball game since V-tech.

Special teams probably favor Clemson, unless it comes down to a 57 yard field goal.  They have a good return guy.  We don't want Spiller to be their MVP - he's their return man, throws out of the backfield, etc type of guy.

Clemson is stuck in a dilemma - playing keep away is their best bet, because they can't win a scoring contest, but the weakest component on defense for us is the deep ball.  Do they risk lots of 3 and outs by running play action passes on 3rd and 3 and throwing deep?  Meanwhile, they like running between the tackles, not NU's usual weakness.  Running at or around our D-line is not the expected way to beat us.

Meanwhile, we should look to wear out their defense, the only part of their team that will likely keep them in the game, but at the same time, jumping to a 17-0 lead is very tempting.

I think we try to score in 5 minute drives and use a lot of new wrinkles to vex their defense.  Clemson is used to playing an attacking Defense.  Watson has to put them on their heals.  Look for lots of wheel house routes and halfback passes, maybe even our first reverse of the season.

Prediction Tomorrow.

OU Game Prediction

Boy, I wish I had strong optimism about this weekend.  Admittedly the 21 point spread seems a bit extreme, but I do understand how the nation might see a blow out of that magnitude.

 

One of the reasons for the lack of optimism comes from the strength vs weaknesses of the two teams.

NU has had success playing ball control.  OU is not giving up drives - their defense struggles against play makers making big plays.  Not our specialty!

OU has plenty of talent, we have talent and experience in a few spots.

NU has an inspired team - OU certainly is not lacking in the emotion element.  Stoops and Bo only spent one year together at OU -- I don't think it was an accident that Bo left Norman in one year to take an only slightly better job at LSU.

I don't see a lot of opportunity to knock off OU this weekend.

Therefore, here is the score prediction.

OU 24 NU 20

Oh, but at the end of game NU 38 OU 37.